These kittens need you to start scenario planning RIGHT NOW

Kittens are SO GREAT.  But do you know what else is so great? QUADRANTS defined by X and Y axes! These tools aren't warm and fuzzy, but they will help you survive during volatile times. Read on - I promise this will not be punishment math. And if you need a minute, you can always stop to ground yourself by asking "Do the kittens sneeze tiny little sneezes when they smell the flowers?" or "Are there any other kittens inside of that basket?!"

How Scenario Planning Works

Scenario planning helps us prepare for big shifts by showing us what could happen and what to watch for if a particular future starts to unfold. My method is based on the Oxford Scenario Planning model. We start by identifying two key uncertainties that will shape the social sector. These uncertainties are then mapped on a 2x2 grid, creating four possible scenarios—one for each quadrant. Each scenario represents a different version of the future based on how these uncertainties play out. Once the scenarios are mapped, we pinpoint signposts—early indicators that signal which direction the future is heading.

Understanding Future Scenarios

To build a scenario map, we set up two axes—X and Y—representing major forces shaping the social sector, like leadership in the nonprofit sector is strong or weak, federal funding increases or decreases, or we get a supportive or difficult policy environment. Where these two uncertainties intersect, we get four possible futures:

Each quadrant tells a different story about what the future could look like, giving organizations a head start in anticipating challenges and opportunities. If you want to have some examples, look at the pre-election scenario planning webinars I ran last year.

Preparing for What’s Ahead

With these scenarios mapped out, organizations can prepare for different possibilities rather than reacting when change happens. This approach is especially valuable in unpredictable times when external forces can push us in unexpected directions. The best time to plan for the future isn’t after it arrives—it’s right now.

Let me say that again. RIGHT NOW is the best time to plan for future uncertainties. 

I’d encourage you to think about what factors matter most to your work and try a scenario planning exercise for your organization. It doesn’t have to be about national politics—it could be local elections, climate risks, the impact of AI, or a change in funding. 

The future isn’t unknowable. By analyzing trends and watching for key signals, we can make informed choices that help our organizations adapt and thrive. More importantly, the future isn’t something happening to us—we’re creating it with the decisions we make today.

Join Our Next Webinar: 

Want to learn how to apply scenario planning to your work? Join me for our next webinar, Scenario Planning - How to Evolve Rapidly in Changing Times, where I’ll walk you through the process and show you how to build future-ready strategies. 

📅 Date: Monday, April 21, 2025
⏰ Time: 1pm ET/10am PT
🔗 Register Here