Part 2 - Scenario Planning for a Possible 2nd Trump Presidency

Last week, FutureGood hosted a  webinar, Scenario Planning for a Possible 2nd Trump Presidency. Obviously, this topic is of critical importance to the sector, even before Biden stepped out of the race this weekend.  It gives me great hope in the foresight of the sector, as almost 1,000 people registered for the session. You can check here for the webinar recording. 

How Scenario Planning Works

Scenario Planning helps us prepare for any big changes by illuminating what could happen and then explaining what to look for if a particular scenario emerges. We begin by identifying two points of measure that would impact the social sector. These uncertainties are then mapped on a 2x2 matrix, resulting in four possible scenarios—one for each quadrant of the matrix. Each scenario represents a different future based on varying conditions of these uncertainties. Once the scenarios are mapped, we identify signposts—indicators that signal which scenario is unfolding.

Webinar Insights

During the recent webinar, I charted two axes to visualize potential future scenarios. The axes measured the strength of leadership among nonprofits against the strength of leadership within philanthropic organizations. Strength was broadly defined as financial, political, organizing, or programmatic strength. This resulted in four possible quadrants or scenarios:

• Quadrant 1: Strong Foundations, but Weak Nonprofits
• Quadrant 2: The Strong Quadrant (both Nonprofits and Foundations are strong)
• Quadrant 3: The Weak Quadrant (both Nonprofits and Foundations are weak)
• Quadrant 4: Strong Nonprofit Leadership, but Weak Foundation Leadership

Characteristics of Each Quadrant

In collaboration with our panel of social sector experts—Kristen Cambell - CEO, PACE Funders), Susan Taylor Batten - President, Association of Black Foundation Executives (ABFE), and Hilda Vega - Vice President, Philanthropic Knowledge & Practice, Hispanics in Philanthropy (HIP)—and through active participation from the webinar audience, we developed a list of characteristics that could emerge in each quadrant. This list is now available under the recording of the webinar.

Preparing for the Future

With these identified scenarios and characteristics, organizations can anticipate and prepare for the conditions that may arise if Trump is re-elected. Scenario planning is crucial, especially in times of divisive politics, where the election results could take us in two vastly different directions. Don’t wait until after the election to consider your organization’s path—start planning now. I’d encourage you to think about what possible variables are important to your organization’s work and do a similar scenario planning exercise for your organization. It doesn’t just have to be about a Trump presidency, it could be about a Harris presidency or any local political changes on your horizon.

The future isn’t unknowable; by employing critical analysis and trend-watching, we can make informed projections to help our organizations adapt and thrive. More importantly, the future isn’t some terrible thing coming your way, we create it with the decisions that we make today.

We are living in a time of rapid change and transformation. It is more important than ever that your organization builds its ability to predict and shape the future. We have launched a new program FutureProof to help nonprofits and foundations build their internal strategic capacity so that they can quickly respond to rapidly evolving challenges and opportunities. We are currently enrolling a small number of organizations into our September pilot program.